saywhat-politics:
The red line is when Republicans ended the national assault weapons ban.
[Image ID: A tweet from No Lie With Bryan Tyler Cohen @NoLieWithTBC. The tweet states, ‘The red line is when Republicans ended the national assault weapons ban.’ Underneath this is a chart, showing mass shootings in the US from 1980 to 2022. There is a red line at 2004. The number of shooting victims gradually increases after 2004. End ID]
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RATING: MOSTLY RELIABLE
The chart is from this article in the Financial Times. The chart itself is accurate, and it is also true that an assault rifle ban expired in the US in 2004.
Source: 'Twenty five years ago, when Biden was chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee, Congress passed the Public Safety and Recreational Firearms Use Protection Act — commonly called the assault weapons ban.
It prohibited the manufacture or sale for civilian use of certain semi-automatic weapons. The act also banned magazines that could accommodate 10 rounds or more.
[…] Sponsors also accepted a “sunset provision” by which the 1994 ban would automatically expire after 10 years unless renewed by a vote of Congress.’
However, some context is missing. For example, the image of the graph cuts out the text underneath it, which explains that the threshold for a mass shooting was lowered from 4 to 3 deaths in 2013, and that this change is reflected in the graph.
Source: 'This database includes shootings in “a public place in which four or more victims were killed.” That threshold was lowered to three victims in 2013, which is reflected in the data from then on. The data excludes shootings during “more conventionally motivated crimes such as armed robbery or gang violence.”
Furthermore, evidence around the effectiveness of the 1994 assault rifle ban is inconclusive. Whether it reduced overall gun deaths is unclear, although the evidence that it reduced mass shooting deaths specifically is somewhat stronger.
Source: 'Evidence for the effect of assault weapon bans on mass shootings is inconclusive. Evidence that high-capacity magazine bans may decrease mass shootings is limited.’
Source: 'In a linear regression model controlling for yearly trend, the federal ban period was associated with a statistically significant 9 fewer mass shooting related deaths per 10,000 firearm homicides (p = 0.03). Mass-shooting fatalities were 70% less likely to occur during the federal ban period’
Source: 'Critics of the ban have argued that it violated Second Amendment rights while accomplishing little, and evidence suggests it did not do much to reduce the incidence of gun violence overall.
What it did, its defenders reply, was reduce the number of people killed in mass shootings.
Both sides of the debate claim vindication in subsequent research. Comparing the various studies is difficult because they use different definitions of “assault weapon” and mass shooting.’
The effectiveness of the ban may have been weakened due to the fact that any assault rifles already owned were not included in the ban, as well as that most gun deaths are from handguns.
Source: 'But to secure the votes for passage, the ban’s sponsors agreed to allow those who already had these guns to keep them.’